This week’s Road to the Kentucky Derby

Churchill Downs has changed the method in which horses earn their way into the Kentucky Derby if more than 20 are entered for next May 4’s race, abandoning preference based on graded-stakes earnings in favor of a tiered points system involving 36 races. This is the last week where races offer a 100-40-20-10 scale for the top four finishers. Churchill long has estimated that 40 points should comfortably get a horse into the May 4 Derby, with 30 points putting a horse on the bubble. However, as the race nears, Wynn Las Vegas is offering a “prop bet” that puts the over-under on the necessary points to get in at 22 1/2.

Point leaders (only active Triple Crown-nominated horses listed): 150 – Orb, Verrazano; 129 – Goldencents; 110 – Revolutionary; 100 – Lines of Battle; 70 – Vyjack; 60 – Will Take Charge; 50 – Itsmyluckyday, Govenor Charlie, Black Onyx; 44- Normandy Invasion; 42 – Mylute; 36 – Oxbow; 30 – Uncaptured, Super Ninety Nine.

Rydilluc wins Gulfstream's Palm Beach and will try to earn a Derby berth in the Blue Grass

Saturday’s points race: $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass (G1), 1 1/8 miles on Polytrack, Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky., 5:40 p.m. ET, NBC, TVG; $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1), 1 1/8 miles, Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., 6:28 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network, HRTV.

Arkansas Derby: Lukas teams with Calumet (Part 2)

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, four-time Kentucky Derby winner, has his most serious contenders in years in Will Take Charge and Oxbow, the close 1-2 finishers in Oaklawn’s Rebel. Calumet Farm’s Oxbow, who lost the Rebel by a head, is among the leading contenders in the Arkansas Derby, while Will Take Charge will train up to the Kentucky Derby.

Only the legendary Ben Jones trained more Derby winners – six – than Lukas. And no owner has won the Derby more than Calumet, though new owner Brad Kelley is two sales of the showcase Lexington farm removed from founder Warren Wright and his heirs, who won eight Derbys between 1941 and 1968.

Lukas trained for Calumet in the waning years of the Wright heirs’ ownership, conditioning 1990 Horse of the Year Criminal Type. But Oxbow does not race in the famed devil’s red and blue silks of the original Calumet – those were sold at auction in 1992 TNT Stud of Brazil. Instead, jockey Gary Stevens – who teamed with Lukas to win the 1985 Arkansas Derby on the Lukas-trained Tank’s Prospect, as well as the Kentucky Derby in 1988 (Winning Colors) and ’95 (Thunder Gulch) – will wear Kelley’s black and gold silks.

Lukas won his first of two Arkansas Derbys with the filly Althea in 1984. (Lukas and Calumet also have longshot Channel Isle in the Blue Grass.)

If it’s a prep, there’s Pletcher, Baffert:

Todd Pletcher, who trains current Kentucky Derby favorite Verrazano, sends out Overanalyze, the Remsen winner who was fifth in the Gotham in his only start this year. Pletcher has won the Arkansas Derby two times, but it was his 2010 runner-up Super Saver who three weeks later provided his so-far only Kentucky Derby victory.

“Overanalyze seems to have moved forward in his training since the Gotham,” Pletcher said. “We expect improvement in his second start after the layoff.”

Bob Baffert, seeking a fourth Kentucky Derby and second straight Arkansas Derby after Bodemeister’s romp last year, has the duo of well-regarded allowance winner War Academy and the consistent check-getter Den’s Legacy, who has a Rebel third and two seconds in California in three preps this year. War Academy, ridden by big-money jockey Mike Smith, is the somewhat surprising 2-1 favorite for a lightly raced colt who hasn’t finished in the top three in a stakes.

“War Academy certainly is getting a lot of buzz,” said Jimmy Barnes, Baffert’s top assistant. “He’s a Giant’s Causeway colt. He’s a good-looking colt, and he’s hopefully going in the right direction now. We couldn’t be happier with him. But, he’s untested.”

Derby production: Arkansas’ most important prep has produced five Kentucky Derby winners, most recently Super Saver.

Toyota Blue Grass: Uncaptured, Rydilluc ones to beat

Uncaptured should greatly benefit from his Spiral second place after missing two months of training. If Rydilluc’s turf form transfers to Polytrack, watch out.

Longshots to watch:

Palace Malice last year was regarded as one of Pletcher’s most promising 2-year-olds. He had a terrible trip when third in the Louisiana Derby, and if he takes to the Polytrack he’ll be a major factor.

Dynamic Sky, stablemate of Uncaptured, is ridden for the second time by red-hot Joel Rosario. He has excellent Polytrack form, and the old “lesser-regarded half of the trainer/owner entry” angle always seems to jump up and bite horse players.

My Name is Michael missed some time after finishing third in the Sam Davis and should benefit from the Spiral, in which he was eighth as the surprising favorite. He adds blinkers.

Bomber for the gimmicks: Fear the Kitten lost all his momentum when stuck behind the fast-stopping Mac the Man in Turfway’s Spiral, winding up fifth but losing by less than four lengths. Trainer Mike Maker has won or nearly won the Blue Grass with stranger horses (see 40-1 winner Stately Victor in 2010, 24-1 runner-up Twinspired in 2011 and 31-1 third-place Gung Ho last year). Fear the Kitten was claimed for $40,000 by owner Frank Irvin of Louisville in his debut at Keeneland.

Derby production: The Blue Grass has produced a record 23 Derby winners, but Strike the Gold in 1991 is the last two sweep both.

Arkansas Derby (G1)

Post time: Saturday at 6:28 p.m. ET at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. Purse: $1 million. Distance: 1 1/8 miles. TV: NBC Sports Network, HRTV. Radio: HRRN, Sirius 93 and horseracingradio.net.

Pp*horse (weight)*jockey/trainer*odds

1.*Carve (118)*Santana/Asmussen*20-1

2.*War Academy (118)*Smith/Baffert*2-1

3.*Divine Ambition (118)*Graham/Miller*20-1

4.*Falling Sky (122)*M. Garcia/Terranova*10-1

5.*Den’s Legacy (122)*Albarado/Baffert*6-1

6.*Heaven’s Runway (122)*Ocampo/Martin*30-1

7.*Texas Bling (122)*Borel/Durham*20-1

8.*Frac Daddy (118)*Lebron/McPeek*15-1

9.*Overanalyze (122)*Bejarano/Pletcher*4-1

10.*Oxbow (122)*Stevens/Lukas*5-2

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

Post time: Saturday at 5:40 p.m. at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky. Purse: $750,000. Distance: 1 1/8 miles on Polytrack. Weight: 123 pounds. TV: NBC. Radio: Horseracingradio.net and Sirius 93.

Pp*horse*jockey/trainer*odds

1.*Dynamic Sky*Rosario/Casse*8-1

2.*My Name Is Michael*Bridgmohan/Mott*15-1

3.*Undrafted*Nakatani/Ward*10-1

4.*Java’s War*Leparoux/McPeek*4-1

5.*Palace Malice*Gomez/Pletcher*8-1

6.*Channel Isle*Rocco/Lukas*6-1

7.*Uncaptured*Mena/Casse*7-2

8.*Charming Kitten*Bravo/Pletcher*8-1

9.*Tesseron*A. Garcia/J. Carroll*50-1

10.*Footbridge*Lanerie/Harty*10-1

11.*Balance the Books*Castellano/Brown*15-1